Estimated glucose disposal rate outperforms other insulin resistance surrogates in predicting incident cardiovascular diseases in cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0–3 and the development of a machine learning prediction model: a nationwide prospective cohort study

Table 2 Multivariate regression analysis of the associations between eGDR and cardiovascular diseases in individuals with CKM syndrome stages 0–3

eGDR	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3
eGDR	OR (95%CI)	P value	OR (95%CI)	P value	OR (95%CI)	P value
Cardiovascular diseases
Continuous	0.84 (0.81–0.87)	< 0.001	0.84 (0.81–0.88)	< 0.001	0.86 (0.83–0.90)	< 0.001
Quartile 1	Reference		Reference		Reference
Quartile 2	0.56 (0.46–0.70)	< 0.001	0.58 (0.47–0.72)	< 0.001	0.59 (0.48–0.73)	< 0.001
Quartile 3	0.42 (0.33–0.52)	< 0.001	0.44 (0.34–0.54)	< 0.001	0.51 (0.40–0.66)	< 0.001
Quartile 4	0.41 (0.34–0.53)	< 0.001	0.43 (0.34–0.54)	< 0.001	0.48 (0.38–0.61)	< 0.001
P for trend	< 0.001		< 0.001		< 0.001
Heart disease
Continuous	0.86 (0.83–0.90)	< 0.001	0.87 (0.83–0.91)	< 0.001	0.86 (0.81–0.91)	< 0.001
Quartile 1	Reference		Reference		Reference
Quartile 2	0.62 (0.48–0.79)	< 0.001	0.63 (0.49–0.80)	< 0.001	0.65 (0.51–0.84)	< 0.001
Quartile 3	0.48 (0.36–0.61)	< 0.001	0.49 (0.37–0.63)	< 0.001	0.52 (0.39–0.70)	< 0.001
Quartile 4	0.47 (0.36–0.61)	< 0.001	0.48 (0.37–0.63)	< 0.001	0.51 (0.36–0.73)	< 0.001
P for trend	< 0.001		< 0.001		< 0.001
Stroke
Continuous	0.81 (0.76–0.85)	< 0.001	0.81 (0.76–0.85)	< 0.001	0.81 (0.76–0.86)	< 0.001
Quartile 1	Reference		Reference		Reference
Quartile 2	0.48 (0.35–0.67)	< 0.001	0.50 (0.36–0.70)	< 0.001	0.51 (0.37–0.71)	< 0.001
Quartile 3	0.39 (0.27–0.55)	< 0.001	0.39 (0.27–0.55)	< 0.001	0.39 (0.28–0.56)	< 0.001
Quartile 4	0.35 (0.25–0.50)	< 0.001	0.35 (0.24–0.50)	< 0.001	0.34 (0.25–0.51)	< 0.001
P for trend	< 0.001		< 0.001		< 0.001

eGDR, estimated glucose disposal rate; CKM, cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval

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